Last Updated on 21/03/2026 by TodayWhy Editorial
The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman — is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Normally, it carries about 20-30% of global seaborne oil trade and a similar share of liquefied natural gas (LNG). But since early March 2026, amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war, Iran has effectively closed the strait to most commercial traffic, triggering massive disruptions.
As of March 18, 2026, tanker traffic has plummeted by over 90% compared to pre-war levels. Only a handful of vessels — often “shadow fleet” ships tied to Iran or friendly nations like China, India, and Pakistan — are slipping through under special arrangements. Commercial Western-flagged tankers have largely halted, with queues of hundreds of ships waiting at either end. Global oil prices have surged, with Brent crude frequently exceeding $100 per barrel and wild swings reflecting extreme uncertainty.
Latest news about the Strait of Hormuz
- 19th March: European and Japanese leaders condemned Iranian attacks, warning of global energy disruption and pledging support to keep the vital Hormuz shipping route open.
- 18th March: A senior United Arab Emirates official said the UAE could support any U.S.-led effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global oil supplies. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the president of the UAE, suggested the country would aid multinational efforts targeted at opening the narrow waterway and ensuring it is safe for ships. (Read more)
- 17th March: President Donald Trump has expressed disappointment with the majority of NATO countries, as most alliance members have offered little to no support in the ongoing military operations against Iran. (Read more)
- 16th March: China continues to receive Iranian crude oil through alternative routes designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint at risk of closure amid the Iran war, according to several China-based industry sources and analysts who spoke to The Epoch Times on condition of anonymity because of fears of reprisal. (Read more)
- 14th March: The Iranian regime warned it would retaliate if the United States or Israel attacked its oil and energy infrastructure, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. (Read more)
Why has the Strait of Hormuz become a flashpoint in 2026? Here’s the full breakdown of the causes, Iran’s motivations, the economic fallout, and what could happen next.
Video: Why the Strait of Hormuz Conflict Could Hit Wallets and Plates
Why Iran Effectively Closed the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s actions stem directly from the US and Israeli military campaign that began on February 28, 2026, with strikes targeting Iranian leadership (including the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) and infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait closed starting around March 1-2, using threats of attacks, drone strikes, missiles, and possible mining to deter passage.
- Strategic retaliation and leverage: Iran views the closure as asymmetric warfare — a way to inflict economic pain on the US, Israel, and their allies without direct confrontation on land. By disrupting global energy flows, Tehran aims to raise costs for the West, force diplomatic concessions, and demonstrate resilience despite heavy losses.
- Selective enforcement: The strait isn’t hermetically sealed. Iran has allowed “approved” vessels (often carrying its own oil exports to Asia) to pass via negotiated safe corridors, hugging Iranian waters. This generates revenue for Iran’s war effort while punishing enemies. As Iran’s Foreign Minister stated, the strait is “open” but closed to “enemies” and their allies.
- Historical playbook: Iran has threatened Hormuz closures before (e.g., during sanctions eras or 2019 tanker incidents), but 2026 marks the most severe implementation due to the direct war.
The result: A near-total halt for most global shipping, with only sporadic transits reported (e.g., a few bulkers and shadow fleet tankers in recent days).
Why Oil Prices Are Surging — And Why They Could Go Higher
The closure has created the largest oil supply disruption in modern history, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Key impacts include:
- Supply shock: Around 15-20 million barrels per day of crude and products from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and others are blocked or severely delayed. This equals roughly 15-20% of global demand.
- Price volatility: Brent crude jumped 13%+ early in the crisis to highs near $82, then soared past $100 (with peaks toward $120 in volatile sessions). WTI followed suit. Even partial reopenings cause swings — prices dip briefly on “dribble” traffic news but spike on renewed threats.
- Risk premium explosion: Traders demand huge premiums ($10-15+ per barrel) to cover war risks. Insurance costs for tankers have skyrocketed, and major carriers (Maersk, etc.) suspended passages.
- Broader effects: Fertilizers, plastics, and LNG prices rise too. Global inflation fears mount, with potential recession risks if prolonged.
Analysts warn: A full-month closure could push prices to $120-150/barrel or beyond, echoing the 1973 oil shock but on steroids.
Why Trump Is Furious at NATO and Allies — And Why They’re Refusing
President Trump has repeatedly called for a multinational naval coalition (NATO allies, Japan, South Korea, Australia, even China) to escort tankers and reopen the strait. He warned NATO faces a “very bad future” if allies don’t help, criticizing them for not sharing the burden.
- Allies’ response: Largely a firm “no.” European leaders (Germany, France, UK, etc.) expressed skepticism or outright rejection, wary of escalation into a wider war. Many view it as Trump’s conflict and prefer diplomacy over military involvement.
- Trump’s pivot: After rebuffs, he declared the US “doesn’t need help” but still fumes publicly, highlighting alliance strains.
This isolation increases risks: Without broad support, any US-led reopening effort (e.g., escorts like 1980s Operation Earnest Will) could face Iranian asymmetric attacks (drones, speedboats, mines).
What Happens If the Strait Stays Closed? Three Scenarios
- Short-term dribble and de-escalation (most optimistic): Shadow fleets and selective passages increase slightly; Iran’s arsenal weakens from Israeli/US strikes → quiet reopening via back channels (Oman/Qatar). Prices stabilize around $90-110.
- Prolonged crisis (base case): Iran maintains selective closure for weeks/months → supply shortages persist, prices average $100+ through 2026. Global recession risks rise; Asia (heavy importers) suffers most.
- Full escalation (worst case): Iran mines or attacks more aggressively → complete blockade. Oil hits $150+, triggering energy crisis, inflation spikes, and potential wider conflict.
Recent signs (March 17-18): Some tankers “dribbling through,” per White House comments, hint at slight easing — but threats continue.
Video: A US-led Coalition to Re-open Strait of Hormuz Will Be Effective, Symbolic: Panel
The Bottom Line: Why This Matters to You
The Strait of Hormuz closure isn’t just a Middle East story — it’s a global economic weapon. Higher oil means pricier gas, transportation, goods, and energy bills worldwide. For importers, it could fuel inflation and slow growth.
As the war enters its third week, the strait’s status remains the single biggest driver of energy markets. Cooler heads (or military pressure) may prevail, but until then, expect volatility.
Stay updated on todaywhy.com for more “Why” breakdowns on this fast-moving crisis. What do you think — will allies step in, or is this the new normal for global oil?
Updated March 18, 2026. Synthesized from Reuters, Bloomberg, CNN, Al Jazeera, Lloyd’s List, IEA, and maritime trackers (e.g., Kpler, TankerTrackers). Facts cross-verified for accuracy.