The killing of Ali Larijani on March 17, 2026, is not just another high-profile assassination — it is a potential tipping point that could accelerate Iran’s internal demoralization and operational failure. With the regime already reeling from the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war (February 28), Larijani had become the de facto wartime leader. His elimination now strips Iran of its last experienced central coordinator at the exact moment when its military hardware has been systematically dismantled.
In a stunning escalation of the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran has officially confirmed the death of Ali Larijani, the Secretary of its Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the country’s de facto leader since the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Israeli forces carried out a precise airstrike near Tehran on the night of March 17, 2026, killing the 67-year-old veteran politician along with his son Morteza Larijani, bodyguards, and other senior figures. Iran immediately launched retaliatory missile barrages at Israel (killing at least two people) and attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel also said on March 18th, it killed the Iranian intelligence minister in a strike in Tehran on Tuesday night, according to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, in the latest assassination of the country’s senior leadership.
Here’s the full breakdown from TodayWhy.com— the “why” behind the strike, Iran’s response and the power vacuum it creates.
Who Was Ali Larijani?
Ali Larijani was far more than a bureaucrat — he was one of the Islamic Republic’s most influential and pragmatic hardliners for decades, DW reported.
Born in 1958 in Najaf, Iraq, to a prominent Shi’ite clerical family, he moved to Iran as a child, earned a PhD in Western philosophy (focusing on Immanuel Kant), and joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the Iran-Iraq War.
His career path reads like a who’s-who of Iranian power:
- Culture Minister
- Head of state broadcaster IRIB
- Parliament Speaker (2008–2020)
- Twice Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (including as chief nuclear negotiator 2005–2007)
- Key architect of Iran’s nuclear strategy and regional alliances with Russia and China
After Khamenei’s death in the opening strikes of the current war on February 28, 2026, Larijani effectively became Iran’s acting ruler. He steered military strategy, suppressed internal protests (leading to US sanctions on him), and warned that assassinations would only strengthen the regime.
Why he mattered so much: Larijani was the bridge between hardliners and pragmatists — a measured voice who still oversaw brutal crackdowns and nuclear brinkmanship. Israeli officials called him the man who “led the combat efforts against the State of Israel” after Khamenei’s elimination.
How and Why Israel Targeted Him Now
Israel’s IDF and Defense Minister Israel Katz openly claimed responsibility for the “precise strike” in a Tehran suburb while Larijani visited his daughter. They also confirmed the death of Basij paramilitary commander Gholamreza Soleimani in the same wave of attacks.
The strategic “why” behind the timing:
- Larijani had consolidated power as the regime’s effective leader during nearly three weeks of war.
- Israel (and the US) are pursuing a systematic decapitation strategy — removing top commanders to paralyze Iran’s decision-making and prevent coordinated retaliation.
- Katz’s chilling statement: “Larijani and the Basij commander were eliminated last night and have joined Khamenei… in the depths of hell.”
This wasn’t random. Larijani had just weeks earlier warned on Omani TV that nuclear and security issues were “resolvable” — a message Israel clearly rejected. His death is the most senior Iranian fatality since Khamenei himself.
Iran’s Immediate and Response
Within hours of confirmation by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and state media, Tehran launched waves of missiles and drones at Israel. At least two people were killed in Israel, with further strikes hitting Gulf targets and disrupting shipping.
- Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared: “The assassination of leaders will not set the country back. Our political system remains strong.”
- Funerals for Larijani and Soleimani are scheduled for March 18–19, expected to fuel massive rallies and hardliner calls for escalation.
- Iran launched fresh attacks on Israel on Wednesday, vowing revenge for the killing of two top Iranian leaders the day before.
- Iranian forces have already attacked commercial vessels and forced partial halts in Gulf oil loading (e.g., Fujairah).
Leadership Decapitation
Larijani was uniquely positioned as the “ultimate backroom powerbroker.” A veteran with decades of experience bridging the clerical establishment, the IRGC, and pragmatic diplomacy, he was the one person still capable of issuing coherent orders across Iran’s fractured command structure.
- His death leaves a critical coordination gap. The remaining hardliners (especially within the IRGC) lack his strategic depth and political bridging skills. Analysts note that Iran’s interim leadership after Khamenei was already struggling; removing Larijani risks turning the regime into a collection of rival factions issuing contradictory commands.
- Historical precedent shows that repeated decapitation strikes often trigger panic and paralysis rather than unified rage. Without a clear chain of command, response times slow dramatically — exactly what Israel and the US are counting on. Iranian state media’s rushed statements (“our system remains strong”) sound more like damage control than genuine confidence.
In short, Iran is now leaderless at the top during active wartime. This creates the perfect conditions for internal “nao núng” (demoralization and confusion): soldiers and commanders on the ground receive delayed or conflicting orders, morale plummets, and the risk of desertions or internal power struggles rises sharply.
Senior Israeli intelligence official: “Chaos” in Iranian regime after targeted killings
- Israel believes its ongoing campaign of targeted killings against senior Iranian officials and military figures is sowing “chaos” in the Iranian regime’s leadership, and expects further destabilization following the elimination of senior regime figure Ali Larijani and senior Basij commanders on Tuesday, according to a senior Israeli intelligence official.
- “The regime has been affected with a force six to 10 times greater than in operation Rising Lion,” the official told CNN, referring to the 12-day war on Iran on June 2025. “They are struggling to form policy, make decisions and issue orders between military and political levels. We see chaos, and the situation is expected to worsen soon.”
Video: ‘One Crucial Element’ Needed For Regime Change in Iran: Founder of Israel’s Defense & Security Forum
Severely Degraded Weapons Arsenal
Even before Larijani’s death, the combined US-Israeli air campaign had already inflicted catastrophic damage on Iran’s military capabilities. Now, without centralized leadership to adapt, that degradation becomes fatal.
Key facts from current assessments (IDF, US CENTCOM, March 2026):
- Ballistic missile attacks have declined by ~90% since the war began. Iran has only 100–200 launchers left operational.
- Approximately 70% of Iran’s missile launchers have been struck and rendered unusable.
- Two-thirds (≈66%) of Iran’s entire military production capacity has been damaged or destroyed — including factories, stockpiles, and the ballistic missile industrial base. Iran is no longer producing new missiles on its own soil.
- Air defenses are largely neutralized, giving Israel and the US complete air superiority over Iranian airspace.
- The Iranian Navy has lost over 30 vessels, including its prized drone carrier, severely limiting any ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz effectively.
Without Larijani’s oversight, Iran lacks the strategic brain to reallocate remaining resources, improvise new tactics, or even decide when to conserve its dwindling arsenal. Retaliatory barrages become sporadic, inaccurate, and easily intercepted — as seen in the limited damage from the March 17–18 missile waves.
The Synergistic Effect
The combination is devastating:
- Psychological shock: Iranian troops and proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis) now see their top leaders falling one by one. This breeds widespread demoralization — soldiers question whether continued fighting is futile.
- Operational collapse: With no central commander and almost no working heavy weapons, Iran’s ability to sustain asymmetric warfare evaporates. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz become hollow; the navy and missile forces simply lack the tools.
- Internal instability risk: US intelligence reports (as recent as March 11) still assessed the regime as “not at immediate risk of collapse.” Larijani’s death changes that equation. The power vacuum could trigger factional fighting in Tehran or mass protests if hardliners push reckless escalation that fails spectacularly.
Three Likely Outcomes in the Next 7–10 Days
- Chaotic escalation — Hardliners fire everything left in a final, uncoordinated barrage → quickly exhausted, leading to even heavier Israeli/US retaliation.
- Internal fracture — Rival IRGC factions or surviving clerics compete for control → delayed decisions, possible localized mutinies.
- Forced de-escalation — Surviving leaders quietly seek back-channel talks (via Oman or Qatar) because they realize continued war is unwinnable with a gutted arsenal and no command structure.
Bottom line: Ali Larijani’s assassination does not merely remove one man — it removes Iran’s last functional brain while its body (military hardware) is already bleeding out. The regime’s bravado may continue in public statements, but behind closed doors in Tehran, the panic is almost certainly setting in. What began as a war of survival is rapidly turning into a war of attrition that Iran is structurally incapable of winning.
Stay tuned to todaywhy.com for daily “Why” updates as this story develops. What do you think — will Hormuz be the spark that ignites full war, or can cooler heads (if any remain) prevail?
Sources synthesized from Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, AP, NYT, and IDF statements (March 17–18, 2026). All facts cross-verified across multiple outlets for accuracy.