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Hurricane Lowell tore through the Central Pacific hard enough to become the first Category 5 storm in that basin since 2018, and now it’s curving straight toward Hawaii. Why is Hurricane Lowell turning toward Hawaii, why did it explode in strength so fast, and why are there three hurricanes churning across the Pacific at the same time? Here’s what’s known.
Where Is Hurricane Lowell Right Now?
As of Sunday evening, Lowell was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph sustained winds, located roughly 545 miles south-southwest of Lihue, Kauai, and moving northwest at 6 mph, according to Fox Weather’s tracking coverage. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Kauai and Niihau, with a hurricane warning covering the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. High surf advisories span the entire state, with waves forecast to reach 14 feet.
The National Hurricane Center expects Lowell to remain a major hurricane through Monday morning, then weaken while still holding hurricane strength as it passes near the western Hawaiian islands into Tuesday. Most forecast models keep the core of the storm west of the main islands, but forecasters have been clear that being on the edge of the forecast cone doesn’t mean the islands are in the clear. Expected rainfall varies significantly by island: Kauai and the Big Island could see 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals exceeding 10 inches, while Maui is forecast to receive roughly 2 to 4 inches, with isolated pockets up to 8 inches.
Why Did Hurricane Lowell Explode in Strength So Fast?
Lowell earned its name on August 27 and spent days as a fairly ordinary system before undergoing what meteorologists call rapid intensification: in just 24 hours, its maximum sustained winds jumped 70 mph, from 90 mph to a peak of 160 mph, pushing it to Category 5 strength. That made Lowell the first Category 5 hurricane in the Central Pacific since Hurricane Walaka in October 2018. Category 5 storms in this specific stretch of ocean are genuinely rare, since Central Pacific systems typically encounter cooler water and more wind shear than storms further west, both of which usually work against rapid strengthening.
Video: Kauai residents prepare and brace for Hurricane Lowell
Why Are Forecasters Comparing Lowell to Hurricane Iniki?
Hawaii has only been struck by a direct hurricane landfall twice in modern recorded history, and both storms made the same kind of sharp northward turn that Lowell is now making, according to detailed reporting from The Garden Island, Kauai’s local newspaper. The first was Hurricane Dot, which came ashore on Kauai on August 6, 1959, as a low-end Category 2 storm after weakening from Category 4 strength offshore. Dot caused no deaths, though it left Kauai with about $6 million in property damage, blew down hundreds of trees, and inflicted what officials at the time called severe agricultural losses to sugar cane and fruit crops.
The second, and by far the more destructive, was Hurricane Iniki. Detected as a tropical storm on September 5, 1992, Iniki strengthened as it moved south of the islands before making its own sharp turn toward Kauai on the evening of September 10, giving residents only about a day’s notice. It made landfall on September 11 as a Category 4 hurricane with winds between 130 and 160 mph. Seven people died, including three mariners lost at sea, a resident killed by flying debris, another crushed when a home collapsed, one fatal heart attack, and a death from a house fire sparked by a candle during a power outage on Oahu. Iniki caused an estimated $1.8 billion in damage at the time, according to a NOAA disaster survey, and remains the costliest and deadliest hurricane in Hawaii’s recorded history.
Meteorologists are careful to frame the resemblance between these tracks and Lowell’s as a coincidence rather than a warning sign of a repeating pattern. National Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Parker has pointed out that the vast majority of Pacific hurricanes near Hawaii simply pass by without incident, and that people naturally remember the rare ones that turned toward the islands rather than the many that didn’t. “We haven’t had very many do this,” Parker said. Hawaii State Climatologist Pao-Shin Chu has noted that Iniki tracked roughly 300 miles farther south than Dot did, allowing it to draw more energy from warmer water closer to the equator, and that Lowell has followed an even more southerly path than Iniki, with a sharper predicted turn. A separate National Weather Service meteorologist, Matthew Foster, has stressed that other Central Pacific storms have made similar sharp turns driven by upper-level troughs without ever affecting Hawaii, and that Lowell will behave independently of what happened with either Dot or Iniki, not as a repeat of either storm.
Why Is Hurricane Lowell Turning Toward Hawaii?
Lowell’s path shifted because of a change in the steering pattern above it, not anything happening at the surface. For much of the past week, a mid-level ridge of high pressure parked north of the storm had been pushing it generally westward. Forecasters expected that ridge to weaken as a separate mid- to upper-level low-pressure system, or trough, moved southeastward toward the area north of Hawaii. Once that ridge weakens enough, the trough effectively takes over the steering role, pulling the hurricane north rather than letting it continue harmlessly out to open ocean. It’s the same basic atmospheric mechanism, meteorologists note, that redirected both Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992 onto their unexpected paths toward Kauai.
Video: Tropical storm watch issued for Oahu as Hurricane Lowell nears Hawaii
Why Are Three Hurricanes Churning in the Pacific at Once?
Lowell isn’t an isolated event. It’s one of three hurricanes active simultaneously across the Central and Eastern Pacific, something that hadn’t happened in that basin in 11 years. Forecasters point to a strengthening El Niño pattern as the driver, since El Niño warms Pacific waters and creates atmospheric conditions that favor storm formation and intensification across the basin. That same pattern helps explain why Hawaii’s 2026 hurricane season has already been unusually active: Hurricane Lala, a Category 1 storm, dumped more than three feet of rain on Hawaii Island in mid-August without making landfall, and Tropical Storm Moke followed shortly after. If Lowell delivers major impacts, it would mark the season’s third significant tropical system to threaten the islands. It’s part of a broader pattern of unusual weather extremes across the Pacific this year, one that has also shown up in shifting wildfire smoke patterns over the mainland US, another consequence of atmospheric conditions running hotter and more volatile than average.
How Is Hawaii Preparing?
Hawaii Governor Josh Green issued a statewide emergency proclamation on September 2, ahead of Lowell’s closest approach, at a point when Lowell and a second storm, Karina, were both being watched as potential threats. The declaration activates the state’s major disaster fund, authorizes the Hawaii National Guard to respond if needed, and directs state agencies and utilities to prepare critical infrastructure. The state has since activated 129 Hawaii National Guard members and dispatched six high-water vehicles to Kauai specifically, the island facing the most direct risk. Two state parks were closed to campers, who were ordered to vacate by September 4, well ahead of the storm’s closest approach. Green said the state wasn’t waiting for the storm to get close before acting, pointing directly to the ongoing recovery from Lala as a reason not to take chances this time. Emergency officials in Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui counties have urged residents to restock supplies, review emergency plans, and secure loose outdoor objects ahead of the storm’s closest pass.
Conditions vary sharply by island. Kauai is under both a hurricane warning and a flash flood warning, with several parks and trails, including the entire Kalalau Trail on the Na Pali Coast, closed until further notice, according to Hawaii’s official tourism authority. Oahu sits under a tropical storm warning and flash flood warning, while a high surf warning covers south-facing shores statewide through Tuesday evening. Officials have stressed that dangerous ocean conditions can develop even when the weather on land looks calm, and have asked visitors not to approach the shoreline to photograph large waves. Travelers with flights through Lihue Airport on Kauai have faced the most disruption, while most other airports across the state have continued operating close to normal.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Hurricane Lowell turning toward Hawaii?
A dip in the jet stream over the Pacific is weakening the ridge that had been steering Lowell westward, opening a path for the storm to curve sharply north toward the islands instead of continuing out to open ocean.
Will Hurricane Lowell make direct landfall in Hawaii?
Most forecast models keep Lowell’s core west of the main islands, though forecasters say a direct impact on Kauai can’t be entirely ruled out. Significant indirect impacts, including high surf, heavy rain, and strong winds, are expected regardless.
How strong did Hurricane Lowell get?
Lowell reached Category 5 strength with peak sustained winds of 160 mph, making it the first Category 5 hurricane in the Central Pacific since Hurricane Walaka in 2018.
Why are there three hurricanes in the Pacific right now?
A strengthening El Niño pattern has warmed Pacific waters and created conditions that favor storm formation, producing three simultaneous hurricanes in the Central and Eastern Pacific for the first time in 11 years.
Has Hawaii already been hit by other storms this season?
Yes. Hurricane Lala brought more than three feet of rain to Hawaii Island in mid-August without making landfall, and Tropical Storm Moke followed shortly afterward.
What areas of Hawaii are under warnings?
Tropical storm warnings cover Kauai and Niihau, with a hurricane warning in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. High surf advisories are in place statewide, with waves forecast up to 14 feet.
Is Hurricane Lowell following the same path as Hurricane Iniki?
Lowell’s forecast track resembles the paths of both Hurricane Iniki (1992) and Hurricane Dot (1959), the only two hurricanes to make direct landfall in Hawaii in modern history. Meteorologists describe the resemblance as a coincidence rather than a reliable pattern, and stress that Lowell will behave independently of either storm.
How deadly was Hurricane Iniki?
Hurricane Iniki killed seven people when it struck Kauai in September 1992 as a Category 4 storm with winds up to 160 mph, and it remains Hawaii’s deadliest and costliest hurricane on record, causing an estimated $1.8 billion in damage at the time.
Has a hurricane ever made direct landfall in Hawaii before?
Yes, twice: Hurricane Dot in 1959 and Hurricane Iniki in 1992, both of which struck Kauai after making a similar sharp northward turn to the one Lowell is currently making.